Nerd Analysis: Georgia, South Ossetia, and Kosovo

Marko Hoare, an expert in southeast Europe, takes a look at South Ossetia and Kosovo. The two, he says, are actually quite different, despite the current spate of comparisons between the two.

Hoare also has this excellent quote from another post:

The ‘independence’ of this tiny region means, effectively, its annexation by Russia - which is, in effect, a process that is underway, and which the desperate Georgian offensive is attempting to halt. I have already explained at length why South Ossetia is in no way equivalent to Kosova, either in terms of its constitutional or legal status, or in terms of its actual credentials as a ‘nation’. ‘Self-determination’ does not mean the right of a former colonial power - in this case Russia - to annex enclaves in its former colonies.

Georgia and Russia: Fighting Escalates over South Ossetia

While the world's been distracted by the Olympic fanfare, the Caucasus has burst into flames as Georgia and Russia come to blows over South Ossetia. Amid all the glittering Olympic rhetoric of world unity and whatnot, this is a harsh dose of brutal reality. The ancient Greeks, always a scrappy lot that fought each other as much they fought non-Greeks, at least had the idea of the "Olympic truce" to suspend hostilities while the Games were in session. No such luck for modern Games. The "truce" today is simply an idea, and one that looks increasingly naive.

Some things to consider about the current conflict: How much of the Caucasus fighting is really about South Ossetian separatists per se and how much is really about Russia flexing its muscles and wanting to hold/expand its sphere of influence? Georgia is, you'll recall, a US ally that has pro-Western leanings and a desire to join NATO.

Time to send in the clowns -- I mean, the diplomats.

UPDATE 1: I was half-joking with my shot at diplomats, but then I read this bit in a fresh report: "On Friday evening, the UN Security Council failed to agree on the wording of a statement calling for a ceasefire." *snort of derision* What a waste of space the Security Council is.

UPDATE 2: TigerHawk has more, with links.

UPDATE 3: Professor-blogger James Joyner thinks about South Ossetia in the context of Kosovo.

UPDATE 4: It is also, like most modern conflicts, a war of the media and information.

Taiwan Recognizes Independent Kosovo

Kosovo's declaration of independence has opened a gigantic international can of worms.

I've read various commentators who have wondered aloud if Kosovo's action will have ramifications for Taiwan. These have included my usual reads, Samizdata and Dignified Rant.

This is going to be a troublesome issue, but I can tell you a couple things even at this early date:

1. Taiwan has recognized independent Kosovo. UPDATE: DPP vice-presidential candidate Su Tseng-chang congratulated Kosovo and called it a model for Taiwan.
2. China is unhappy about Kosovo's unilateral declaration.
3. China is also unhappy about Taiwan's recognition of Kosovo. Beijing is saying that Taiwan has no right to issue such a recognition.
4. President Bush has now recognized Kosovar independence.

There's something else to think about. China, like Russia, is angry about Kosovar independence. BUT -- if China doesn't recognize Kosovo and establish ties with it, Kosovo might go ahead and establish ties with Taiwan, which has already said this: “Of course, we would like to develop further relations with countries which cherish democracy and freedom.” (from Phoebe Yeh, Taiwanese foreign ministry spokeswoman, commenting on Kosovo)

As a student of history, I can't help fighting a feeling of weird deja-vu. The Balkans have always been a tinder box -- and all out of proportion to its geographical size, as most tinder boxes are.