Meet Xi Jingping: China's New Leader

The CCP holds its Party Congress and picks a new leader. So neat, so orderly, so ... OPAQUE, OLIGARCHIC, AND UNFREE. 

Beginning Nov. 8, when the Communist Party convenes its 18th Party Congress, and continuing in March 2013, Beijing will in two steps replace about 70 percent of the incumbents in its top communist party, government, and military bodies. China watchers expect Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang to ascend to the most powerful two spots on the Politburo Standing Committee, the country's highest decision-making body, but nobody outside a small circle of insiders knows who will fill the other 5-7 spots -- let alone what those individuals think about how to run the world's second-biggest economy and one of its major military powers.

China's Obnoxious 1% and Their Spoiled Brats

The end of the Chinese dream?  That's what today's cover of Foreign Policy says.  Well, it's certainly something about oligarchic misbehavior and crony capitalism (which is, do I need to say it for the millionth time, not the same thing as actual capitalism).

Tom Friedman, Call Your Office

Has the Chinese credit bubble burst?

The Unicorns of US-China Policy

Interesting!

Nerd Analysis: Prof. Drezner on the World Cracking Up

Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics at Tufts University, wonders if we're repeating 1931 with a pretty pessimistic round-up of news.  May I offer some wry humor to go along with that?  Here's a sign that wouldn't be out of place on the road to serfdom.

Doom in the mirror is closer than it appears.

Nerd Analysis: Francis Fukuyama on China

Hmmmm.  

Calls for Lower Taxes In ... China

Well, well, well.  What's this?

I Got Your Apocalypse Right Here: Global Debt

In debt up to your eyeballs.  There's a new report from the IMF.  

China Inside and Out

I was recently reminded again of Fareed Zakaria's breathless assertion that China's rise (to what, global hegemony?)  is "inevitable."  Really?  So I guess we all just better brush up our Mandarin and get ready to welcome our Chinese creditor overlords.  As usual, this sort of "analysis" (like Tom Friedman's idiotic Sinophiliac dreams of autocratic paradise) is far too simplistic.  Take a look at this reminder that the Chinese economy can't paper over deep internal social problems.  (Hmmm, haven't I said this before?  The most recent rant is here.  See this too.)  Here's an interesting factoid:

According to its official budget, China spent about $80 billion on defence in 2009 (although the United States and others would argue that even this massive figure underestimates the true scale). But more remarkably, it spent almost as much—$75 billion—on internal security.

Keeping the lid on Xinjiang and Tibet has clearly required massive amounts of central government cash, as has policing China’s restless provinces and dealing with public unrest. Indeed, those who venture outside the grand cities of Shanghai and Beijing see a country with surprising levels of fractiousness and casual violence.  

. . . Indeed, while the rest of the world watches anxiously as China demonstrates an increasingly assertive streak in its dealings with its neighbours and the United States, the key slogan of the current government isn’t about a ‘peaceful’ rise or how China hopes to create a better global environment. Instead, the focus is very much inward, on `harmonious development.’ China looks strong from the outside, but internally there’s a potentially devastating minefield of environmental problems, inequality, ethnic tensions and social imbalances.

Then look at this commentary by Fang Lizhi -- as the byline states -- "a professor of physics at the University of Arizona, was a leader of the pro-democracy movement in China before fleeing the country in 1989."

The Beijing Blues: China's Existential Angst

Check out this analysis. China cheerleaders better take note. China critics who have long pointed out the deep structural flaws of the PRC will not be much surprised. Careful, though, as vulnerability (both perceived and actual) will make it potentially more volatile and violent.

Wealthy Chinese Communists Oppose New Property Taxes

OK, it's a weird headline but an interesting news story. Not even some Communists like taxes? Heh!

China: Government Leadership Woes in Hu's "Harmonious Society"

Hmmmmm. Hu's attempt at economic policy hasn't been too hot either:

The core of the Hu policies was an overall attempt to re-centralize economic control. This would allow the central government to begin weeding out redundancies left over from Mao's era of provincial self-sufficiency, which the Deng and Jiang eras of uncoordinated and locally-directed economic growth often driven by corruption and nepotism exacerbated. In short, Hu planned to centralize the economy to consolidate industry, redistribute wealth and urbanize the interior to create a more balanced economy that emphasized domestic consumption over exports. However, Hu's push, under the epithet "harmonious society," has been anything but smooth and its successes have been limited at best.

Institutional and local government resistance to re-centralization has hounded the policy from its inception, and resistance has grown with the economic crisis.

Best Blog Post Title of the Day: "Green Man's Burden."

Awesome Aussie Tim Blair strikes again, with apologies to Kipling.

Oops, Tim seems to have taken his cue from another Aussie:

The biggest opponents of a broad, sweeping international agreement aren't business but poor countries because they know they cannot afford the green man's burden.

It is why attempts to get the Indian and Chinese governments to take on significant emissions reduction targets will fail because there's no choice between two weeks of criticism from the 20-strong Australian Youth Climate Coalition delegates, against a lifetime of criticism from the billions of people who have to live with the consequences.

The tragedy of Copenhagen is that the impact of any agreement on the world's poor has largely been lost among the self-indulgent circus caused by rich country green activists who'd rather see themselves on television back home.

UPDATE: See this great combination of green-tinted Kipling and Al Gore eco-poetry!

Satire Alert: SNL and the Obama-Hu Jintao Press Conference

Via Ms.Underestimated is the link of Saturday Night Live's hilarious potshot at Obama's visit to China. Oh, it's funny. It's funny because the critique is true.

Is China's Economy a Paper Tiger?

Uh-Oh if true. A BIG Uh-Oh.

Is Your Country In Danger of a Meltdown?

Via Barcepundit comes this unhappy list of 10 nations in the worst danger. Spain, alas, is number 1. 20% unemployment? Ouch.

(OK, China and the US are on the list too. I'm really amused, though, at the photo chosen for the US page. Ted Nugent? China gets riot police in its photo, but we get the Motor City Madman himself!)