Saturday, May 12, 2012

Israeli Political Unity, Iran, and Echoes of 1967

It's a huge coalition and national consensus. Krauthammer thinks it echoes 1967:
By creating the largest coalition in nearly three decades, Netanyahu is establishing the political premise for a preemptive strike, should it come to that. The new government commands an astonishing 94 Knesset seats out of 120, described by one Israeli columnist as a “hundred tons of solid concrete.” 
The wall-to-wall coalition demonstrates Israel’s political readiness to attack, if necessary. (Its military readiness is not in doubt.) 
... Those counseling Israeli submission, resignation, or just endless patience can no longer dismiss Israel’s tough stance as the work of irredeemable right-wingers. Not with a government now representing 78 percent of the country.  
Netanyahu forfeited September elections that would have given him four more years in power. He chose instead to form a national coalition that guarantees 18 months of stability — 18 months during which, if the world does not act to stop Iran, Israel will. 
And it will not be the work of one man, one party, or one ideological faction. As in 1967, it will be the work of a nation.
Does he have a point?  Here are other related thoughts and more thoughts.  So apparently Bibi is no longer quite "the loneliest man in the world"?  He did recently express impatience (and, perhaps more piquantly, skepticism) about current Iranian sanctions.  There's this from a while back (2009); I said then that I thought Netanyahu wasn't kidding, and I'm more convinced of that now than ever.  Remember his words about Iran during his spectacular address to Congress last spring: "The nightmare of nuclear terrorism ... if we don't stop it, it's coming" and, crucially, "Israel always reserves the right to defend itself."  Consider this too: Other regional players, even if they're opposed to Israel in general, are not exactly rushing to Iran's side either?  Still, here's one sobering post-strike scenario.  Argue, then, about whether the potential price of action is less horrifying than the actual price of inaction.

(You'll also notice that I'm not really going to talk about the possible "October Surprise" side effects of an Israeli strike.  This is really about Israel and Iran, not American campaign-year politics.  Things of importance do happen in the world that are not primarily about the increasingly facepalm-worthy Obama and Romney campaigns and their silly PR memes-du-jour.  Our leadership class is a joke.  Will someone school these clowns, please?)

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