Syria: Its Breakup is a "Fait Accompli"

So says Foreign Policy.

Quote of the Day on ISIS

No good choices:

It is fine to pit Assad and Maliki plus Iran and Russia against ISIS, except under the following circumstances: Either side wins or, alternatively, there is a draw.

Don't Read This Unless You Want To Be Depressed

Obama's top 10 foreign policy disasters.  Number 1 is Syria because:

This is a blunder that arguably sums up every one of Obama’s weaknesses in conducting foreign policy.  ...

Syria has shown us the many faces of Barack Obama.

First we had Obama the deer in the headlights, doing nothing for a year after the revolt against Bashar al-Assad broke out in April 2011 and people started dying—a period when there was a real opportunity to shift the balance of forces in the Middle East.

Then we had Obama the redliner in August 2012, promising swift action if Assad used chemical weapons against the rebels … then doing nothing when they were used.

Then came Obama the unilateralist, deciding he had to take military action so he wouldn’t look like a prevaricating poltroon. This was immediately followed by Obama the devious, leaving ultimate responsibility for the decision to Congress.

By then, of course, half a million people were dead and Al Qaeda was left to take over leadership of the  rebellion against Assad.

Then came Obama, president of the Vladimir Putin fan club, gratefully taking up the Russian leader’s offer to broker the handover of Assad’s chemical weapons stash because it got Obama off the hook for military action. It also taught Putin that if he wanted to start reassembling the broken bits of the old Soviet Union, starting with Ukraine, Obama wouldn’t raise a hand to stop him.

2013's Biggest Winners and Losers in Foreign Policy

Winners and losers.  No surprises.

Top 3 winners:

1. Vladimir Putin and Russia
2. Iran
3. Assad

Top 3 losers:

1. The Muslim Brotherhood and democratic Islamism
2. The EU
3. The Obama Administration

The Year In Middle East Foreign Policy: The Biggest Losers

Out of a very crowded field, this piece picks three: the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (an Iranian resistance group), the Syrian rebels, and (of course) Israel. 

The quote of the day comes from the article too:

"The lesson there is, when the United States says it has your back, don't listen."

How damning.  As for "smart power," this feckless Administration makes it look dumber all the time.

Short Version: "Your Foreign Policy Sucks"

You know, when the Saudi ambassador calls you out in the New York Times, that's probably not a good sign, hmmmm?

And yet rather than challenging the Syrian and Iranian governments, some of our Western partners have refused to take much-needed action against them. The West has allowed one regime to survive and the other to continue its program for uranium enrichment, with all the consequent dangers of weaponization.

Syria Analysis: Assad Is "Fortunate In His Enemies"

Hey, with enemies like these, who needs friends?  Ahem:

[Sarkis] Naoum {a Lebanese journalist} says that Assad has been singularly fortunate in his enemies: a fragmented Syrian opposition, divided Arab countries, and a Turkish government whose reach exceeds its grasp. 

"He is fortunate because he has Iran, which is willing to go all the way to support him, while there isn't a single Arab country that has this kind of determination to enter the battlefield on the side of the opposition", Naoum said. 

"He is also fortunate because there is an American president who has no appetite for war and because Russia wants to settle its scores with America (via Syria)".

A Political Cartoon From France

This was apparently in Le Monde.  It pointedly shows Obama and the UN poring over chemical weapons while Assad is off busy slaughtering his countrymen by conventional means.

Nerd Analysis: Syria Fallout

Two professors of national security (backgrounds in history and political science) pen this analysis.  Note: they had diametrically opposed ideas about what should be done about Syria, but they agree that the Putin-Obama deal is a wreck: 

For nearly seven decades, American efforts in the Middle East have been based on a bipartisan consensus—one of the few to be found in U.S. foreign policy—aimed at limiting Moscow’s influence in that region. This is a core interest of American foreign policy: it reflects the strategic importance of the region to us and to our allies, as well as the historical reality Russia has continually sought clients there who would oppose both Western interests and ideals. In less than a week, an unguarded utterance by a U.S. Secretary of State has undone those efforts. Not only is Moscow now Washington’s peer in the Middle East, but the United States has effectively outsourced any further management of security problems in the region to Russian president Vladimir Putin.

UPDATE: OK, how about this negative feedback in the New York Times, no less?  Ouchie.  

US and Israel on Assad

US's new Assad policy: "OK, you can stay if you promise to play nicely."
Israel's new Assad policy: "GTFO."

Surprise, surprise, Israel thinks the current idiocy over Syria will encourage Iran.

Quote of the Day: Loose Lips Sink Ships ... of Fools

"We're conducting foreign policy by faux pas. This entire episode has been driven not by deliberate strategy but by slips of the tongue. Obama’s declaration of a “red line” on chemical weapons was a slip of the tongue. So was Secretary of State John Kerry’s offer to have Syria give up its chemical weapons. There is no plan, no coherence to anything this administration is doing on Syria." 

I can't resist adding an image:

Quote of the Day: Syria and Iran

The Russian "deal" is a fiasco.  This related point is obvious, but it still needs saying:

We cannot imagine a worse signal to send to Iran as it continues its push for a nuclear weapon.

Naw, really?

Tweet of the Day: Garry Kasparov on Syria

The Russian chess master, human rights advocate, and opponent of Putin has been on Twitter speaking his mind, and he's not happy:

Dictators love a vacuum. Putin & his client al-Assad didn't have to do anything. They just stepped into the big open space left by Obama.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) September 14, 2013

Putin showed up to put out a fire in Syria, smelling of gasoline and with a big box of matches in his pocket.
— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) September 14, 2013

In Soviet Russia, Cards Play You

And, boy, have we been played.  Ugh.  The craptacular Russian deal on Syria is now officially a thing.  I don't even know what to say.  

What a total mess.  Hell, a fictional Starfleet engineer knows more about diplomacy than the clowns that we've seen lately:

How Assad will now regard any attempt to stop him:

Meanwhile in the Kremlin, this is the look on Pooty-Poot's face:

And this is what is happening to America's standing in the world:

Oh, and this is me ... and maybe you too:

Quote of the Day: Mark Steyn on Putin

Pretty much, yeah:

Putin has pulled off something incredible: He’s gotten Washington to anoint him as the international community’s official peacemaker, even as he assists Iran in going nuclear and keeping their blood-soaked Syrian client in his presidential palace. 

Trollin' Trollin', Trollin'

A thought occurred to me that this might be some kind of a first in the annals of political rhetoric on insulting one's own audience.  See: On Tuesday Obama gave a weird, incoherent speech that managed to insult both the Right and the Left (according to him, apparently I care only about "military might" and not a whit for anything else).  Then the very next day on Wednesday Putin writes an op-ed that trolled the entire nation.  So, gentle readers, we've been trolled twice in two days by the heads of state of two different countries.  Gee, I can't wait to see what happens today, and it's only Thursday.  I CAN'T WAIT FOR THIS WEEK TO BE OVER. 

UPDATE: Well, I had to ask, right? Right on cue ...  Troll du jour is of course Assad himself, now making conditions about "giving up" his chemical weapons.   

Quote of the Day: The Russian "Deal"

Oh boy.  From former State Department official Robert Joseph, who a decade ago helped negotiate Libya’s agreement to give up its nuclear and chemical weapons:

“I don’t think for one moment that the Syrians will give up their chemical weapons stocks. They will say they will give it up and they will play the game to undercut any support for a military strike. But they will then start to put conditions on verification and on the foreign presence in Syria.  Soon, they will start in with Israel; demanding that Israel’s nuclear weapons be put on the table. All of this will lead nowhere for the United States — exactly where Damascus and Moscow want it to go.”

Best Comment Yet on Assad-Obama-Putin

Short and sweet:

"If your foreign policy has to be rescued by a dictator, you are doing it wrong." 

The first runner-up is pretty good too:  "The Obama administration will do everything in its power to do nothing at all."

Besides, if you seriously think that Putin's plan to disarm Assad in the middle of a friggin' civil war can ever work, and I do mean ever, (and/or isn't a big scam), then I have some oceanfront property in Arizona to sell you.

The Syria Speech

I'm sorry. I'm watching this thing, but I cannot take this unserious man seriously.  The content of this speech is so much rhetorical fluff and filler.  His mouth is moving, but I can't hear a bloody thing over the sound of How Idiotic This Administration Has Been For Days.  This is CYA BS meant to cover up the unbelievable clusterfark that this has become.  This sucks.

Well, at least this craptastic speech was short.  Ugh.  Here, you can enjoy Stephen Green's drunkblogging of it.

UPDATE:  The speech in a nutshell:

All we are saying, is give either peace or war a chance, depending which I'm pursuing at the moment.
— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) September 11, 2013

Syria In Images

It's gotten to the point that I can no longer find polite words necessary to discuss the Syria fiasco, which seems to get more insane by the second.  So I resort to images.

Basically what the Obama Administration has created:

How the Obama Administration thinks it's doing:

How Assad and Putin think they're doing:

How people who care about actual foreign policy and national security are feeling:

How the media will try to present this to the public as some kind of Obama victory:

The increasingly-clear winner:

How I'm feeling:

A video bonus, since someone has now called this "Monty Python's Flying Damascus."
Look, at this point you either laugh or you cry.