Foreign Policy 101?

Foreign policy advice for a new president from Michael Totten makes for a bracing read. Here's the short version for those of you in a hurry:

In essence: Get real about Russia, finish off ISIS in Syria, back the Kurds to the hilt, downgrade relations with Turkey, repair our relations with Israel and crack down hard again on Iran. World peace won’t break out if you do these things, but we’ll be a lot better off than if you don’t.

All this advice is based on one simple principle—you reward your friends and punish your enemies. It’s the first rule of foreign policy, one that has been with us since antiquity and will survive until the end of time. Presidents who behave as though this rule doesn’t apply to them are as doomed to fail in foreign policy as rocket scientists who ignore gravity. Hubristically declaring that it would not do “stupid sh*t” like its predecessors, the Obama administration flipped this rule on its head over and over again—with Israel, with Russia, with Iran, and with Turkey—with disastrous results every time.

So turn things around. Again: Reward your friends and punish your enemies. Tattoo that rule on the back of your eyelids if you have to.

Quote of the Day: Returning Ghosts

Via Samizdata:

But when we look around in Europe today, we see that not only is Europe not whole and free, we see the ghosts from the painful 20th century returning to our midst. Ghosts that we thought we’d never see again, that we had buried deep in history’s trashbin.

Today, when we look around us, we see it all again. The annexation of territory, the violation of borders, religious conservativism pairing with political authoritarianism and imperialist bravado. 80% of Russians support annexation through military aggression in Crimea, where the Anschluss – and I use that term most seriously here – the Anschluss of territory was justified by the presence of co-ethnics. Moreover, there is widespread support for an anti-liberal attack against decadent Western “permissiveness,” be it in freedom of speech or choice of life-partners. Indeed, we see that liberal democracy has not only failed to win the battle of ideas against authoritarianism, it has failed even to prevent the resurrection of that once vanquished demon, fascism. The nationalist fervor east of us is expressed in arts in a way that makes Leni Riefenstahl’s Triumph of the Will look like a liberal programme – I suggest you look at the video of the so-called “biker show” staged on August 8 this year in Sevastopol. It is on You Tube. It is a genuine Gesamtkunstwerk. Everything is there – music, art, ballet, motorcycle gangs, it’s all there.

- Estonian President Toomas Hendrik (link to speech transcript)

Headline: "Russia Needs to Learn the Value of Human Life"

Good luck with that.

World Cup 2014: Germany Wins It All!

Die Mannschaft beat Argentina 1-0 and the Germans are now the Weltmeister.  I was also amused by the various sartorial antics of the fans, not to mention this comment on the president of the hilariously corrupt FIFA and his companions:

Angela Merkel at the World Cup with a venal, authoritarian leader. And Vladimir Putin is there too. pic.twitter.com/otQ2nskfG5
— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 13, 2014

Since this IS 2014 and no event is complete without a selfie or two, here you go. The selfie game is strong with this one.

AHA! pic.twitter.com/iK5hbfm7Hr
— Lukas-Podolski.com (@Podolski10) July 13, 2014

Selfie 2…:-) pic.twitter.com/RJh7RnXXUw
— Lukas-Podolski.com (@Podolski10) July 13, 2014

Congratulations to the Germans!

UPDATE: The Onion comments hilariously.

Awesome LOL: Global Stereotype Map

This is brilliant ... and a brilliant commentary on the absurdity of reductive stereotypes.  It is also delightfully insightful and incisive in places: note how it calls a chunk of Russia "Putingrad," Ukraine "Putin's Precious," and Crimea "Putinistan."  On a lighter note, Sweden is labeled "ABBA," "IKEA," and "Nobel Prizes."

Don't Read This Unless You Want To Be Depressed

Obama's top 10 foreign policy disasters.  Number 1 is Syria because:

This is a blunder that arguably sums up every one of Obama’s weaknesses in conducting foreign policy.  ...

Syria has shown us the many faces of Barack Obama.

First we had Obama the deer in the headlights, doing nothing for a year after the revolt against Bashar al-Assad broke out in April 2011 and people started dying—a period when there was a real opportunity to shift the balance of forces in the Middle East.

Then we had Obama the redliner in August 2012, promising swift action if Assad used chemical weapons against the rebels … then doing nothing when they were used.

Then came Obama the unilateralist, deciding he had to take military action so he wouldn’t look like a prevaricating poltroon. This was immediately followed by Obama the devious, leaving ultimate responsibility for the decision to Congress.

By then, of course, half a million people were dead and Al Qaeda was left to take over leadership of the  rebellion against Assad.

Then came Obama, president of the Vladimir Putin fan club, gratefully taking up the Russian leader’s offer to broker the handover of Assad’s chemical weapons stash because it got Obama off the hook for military action. It also taught Putin that if he wanted to start reassembling the broken bits of the old Soviet Union, starting with Ukraine, Obama wouldn’t raise a hand to stop him.

LOL: P.J. O'Rourke "Explains" Russian History

After casting a sardonic, hilariously reductive eye over a thousand years of Russian history, humorist P.J. O'Rourke is confident that Putin, in keeping with that history, will destroy himself sooner or later. 

I do remember a discussion with Alessandra a few years back about Russian history and how Russia had serfs long after everyone else had abandoned serfdom.  This was swiftly followed by her observation that only in Russia would the act of ending serfdom make life even worse for the serfs - er, ex-serfs.

Oh, I can't resist quoting a bit of O'Rourke:

"After his [Ivan the Terrible's] reign, Russia, if you can believe it, got worse. 'The Time of Troubles' featured more drought, more famine, more plague, foreign invasions, massacres, the occupation and sacking of Moscow, and tsars with names like False Dmitry I and False Dmitry II."

Hey, you forgot False Dmitry III!

Ouch.

Hey, Barack? The 1930s called. They want the UK's foreign policy back. http://t.co/4oUqVKMKxt
— Rand Simberg (@Rand_Simberg) March 20, 2014

March Madness, Putin Style

Quote of the Day: Sanctions and Success

Oh, dear:

"Experts are divided into two groups: those who think sanctions usually fail and those who think they almost always fail."

Foreign Policy's School of Hard Knock ... -Knock Jokes

Blah Blah Blah: Useless White House Rhetoric on Ukraine

This is pretty much spot on. 

I add this reaction gif:

While we're at it, here's the Tweet of the Day by none other than Rob Lowe:

“@BBCBreaking: Obama:"Russia on wrong side of history" in #Ukraine http://t.co/B2LQAJHUtJ” Perfect. Guilt trips always work on Putin.
— Rob Lowe (@RobLowe) March 3, 2014

Russian Troops Confirmed in Ukraine

This does not look good.  Krauthammer sounds pessimistic about revanchist Russia under Putin.

Potemkin (Olympic) Village

A friend sent this link: Sochi, $50 billion and perhaps the most corrupt Games ever.  You know, for spending $50 billion you'd think Sochi would have doors that worked and bathroom taps with water that isn't toxic when there even is water.  Just sayin'.

Possibly more annoying/distressing: some of my friends are turning into actual Sochi apologists, arguing that we shouldn't judge Sochi facilities by "Western" standards and that we're being nasty for doing so.  Uhhh ... NO.  Excuse you, but if Sochi wanted the Games so badly for a two-week-long Putin-a-Palooza to impress the world, then it's clearly doing it wrong.  If you put yourself out there on purpose on the world stage, then you should bloody well expect people to judge you by pretty high standards.  The Sochi apologists should try staying in one of the wretched hotels for a while themselves.  Then again, some people never miss a chance to parade their own preening moral superiority.

If you're going to use the Sochi Games to put up a 2014 version of a Potemkin village, then perhaps you should reacquaint yourself with just what a Potemkin village is.

OK, OK, so there's also going to be an argument about how Russia is unfairly judged, how journalists can be subject to biases and preconceptions, etc.  Maybe.  But there is plenty of fodder for legitimate complaint without dipping into old-school prejudices that Russia is a cold, backward, vodka-drenched, lawless wasteland populated by people who drive like lunatics or whatever.   We don't even have to go there.  You don't want to judge the facilities and creature comforts?  Fine.  Let's just judge Russia's political leadership, then.  Is that less touchy for you?  All we have to do is look at Putin.  Should we say "Iran"? "Syria"? "P*ssy Riot"?  How about the ugly legal assault on the rights of gay Russians?  Come on.  Come on.  

And NO, the fact that you're hosting the Games doesn't mean that you're immune from criticism.  I lambasted Beijing relentlessly during those Games, and I think in part I did it because I could tell some Western journalists were holding back (fears of being called racist?).  You know, you can tell people are holding back now too.  Screw the apologists.  SCREW 'EM.

Sochi Olympics Imitate the Simpsons

2013's Biggest Winners and Losers in Foreign Policy

Winners and losers.  No surprises.

Top 3 winners:

1. Vladimir Putin and Russia
2. Iran
3. Assad

Top 3 losers:

1. The Muslim Brotherhood and democratic Islamism
2. The EU
3. The Obama Administration

The Year In Middle East Foreign Policy: The Biggest Losers

Out of a very crowded field, this piece picks three: the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq (an Iranian resistance group), the Syrian rebels, and (of course) Israel. 

The quote of the day comes from the article too:

"The lesson there is, when the United States says it has your back, don't listen."

How damning.  As for "smart power," this feckless Administration makes it look dumber all the time.

Egypt Pivots to Putin?

Oh, I'm sure this is going to turn out just awesome for US foreign policy.  I never realized I'd be getting so much mileage out of this image:

Inevitable: Nominating Putin For The Nobel Peace Prize

So, yeah.  Of course, the Nobel Peace Prize had beclowned itself long before this.

Syria Analysis: Assad Is "Fortunate In His Enemies"

Hey, with enemies like these, who needs friends?  Ahem:

[Sarkis] Naoum {a Lebanese journalist} says that Assad has been singularly fortunate in his enemies: a fragmented Syrian opposition, divided Arab countries, and a Turkish government whose reach exceeds its grasp. 

"He is fortunate because he has Iran, which is willing to go all the way to support him, while there isn't a single Arab country that has this kind of determination to enter the battlefield on the side of the opposition", Naoum said. 

"He is also fortunate because there is an American president who has no appetite for war and because Russia wants to settle its scores with America (via Syria)".