Flashback: Bernard Lewis in 2011

As Egypt burns, I recall an interview that this eminent scholar and historian gave back in 2011 as Mubarak fell.  I'll just quote what Lewis had to say about radical Islamic groups and the election that would eventually bring Morsi to power:

Interviewer: Yet in Egypt now, for example, the assumption is that we’re proceeding toward elections in September and that seems to be what the West is inclined to encourage. 

Lewis: I would view that with mistrust and apprehension. If there’s a genuinely free election – assuming that such a thing could happen – the religious parties have an immediate advantage. First, they have a network of communication through the preacher and the mosque which no other political tendency can hope to equal. Second, they use familiar language. The language of Western democracy is for the most part newly translated and not intelligible to the great masses. In genuinely fair and free elections, [the Muslim parties] are very likely to win and I think that would be a disaster. A much better course would be a gradual development of democracy, not through general elections, but rather through local self-governing institutions. For that, there is a real tradition in the region. 

... This idea that a general election, Western-style, is a solution to all these problems, seems to me a dangerous fallacy which can only lead to disaster. ... To say that they’re [the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt]  secular would show an astonishing ignorance of the English lexicon. I don’t think [it] is in any sense benign. I think it is a very dangerous, radical Islamic movement. If they obtain power, the consequences would be disastrous for Egypt.

This Is What "Leading From Behind" Gets You

I'm a few days behind, but this is still worth a look.  This administration's foreign policy (such as it is) is looking more and more amoeba-like every day - stimulus, response, stimulus, response, purely reactive, lacking higher cognitive functions.

Quote of the Day: Spengler on Egypt and the Arab Spring

The whole thing is worth a read, but here's the quote of the day:

The foreign policy establishment told us that the Arab Spring was the dawn of a glorious new era of democracy in that part of the world. The establishment was dead wrong.

Look, sometimes even the best minds in foreign policy/Middle Eastern studies have no consensus what's going on.  Besides, what are you going to do if the Foreign Office no longer understands foreign affairs?

Amid Egyptian Turmoil, A Notable Placard

As protesters rush the Presidential Palace, Twitter reveals a particularly piquant sign.  Oh ... dear.

Seriously, though, here are a few thoughts, including:

Watch this one closely, folks. This is a real revolution: The shape of the Egyptian state is up for grabs and Egyptian society doesn’t really know what it wants or where it is headed. History is unfolding in real time.

Morsi in Egypt: Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

Morsi decrees himself to be above judicial oversight and thus basically grabs tyrannical powers.  Meet the new boss pharaoh, same as the old boss pharaoh.  Oh, I'm sure this will turn out just frickin' awesome.

 

Quote of the Day, Understatement of the Week

Here it is, kids:

The Arab uprisings have overthrown tyrants in Egypt and Libya, but the populations and lawmakers have yet to grasp that democracy is not only about free elections but creating free societies.

You don't say!

That Implies That There Was A Coherent Policy to Begin With

Charles Krauthammer fulminates that we're seeing the collapse of Obama's policy on the Muslim world.  OK, but as this post title says, that implies that there was a coherent policy to begin with ... Because as far as I'm concerned, apologizing in Egypt and "leading from behind" on the Arab Spring and whimsically/cluelessly lobbing Operation Rhododaktylos Tomahawk Missiles in Libya don't count as a coherent foreign policy with any strategic substance whatsoever.  Anyway ... Here's Krauthammer, ladies and gentlemen.  Well, there's no doubt that foreign policy - or what passes for it in this administration - is in complete disarray as the State Department is in meltdown too.  Now is it just me or do you also see a horrible symmetry in the fact that Cairo is where Obama first went with his (let's face it, ridiculous) "apology tour" and Cairo is precisely where everything started blowing up in our faces in North Africa?

Oh, and from the archives: almost a year ago to the day I moaned about how our ghastly "foreign policy" was making a dangerous world even more dangerous.  I had no idea, though, that it would end up with Embassy-Storming Week.  It's the administration's utterly mushy "foreign policy" taken to its extreme logical conclusion.  I say, Glenn Reynolds 2016, for he declares that he would adhere to the Napier Response and arm his embassies with Marines wielding not only live ammo but flamethrowers!

Quote of the Day: Richard Engel on Egypt

"It makes one wonder, well, was it worth it?  Was it worth supporting the Arab Spring, supporting the demonstrations here in Tahrir Square, when now in Tahrir Square there are clashes going on behind me right in front of the US embassy?"

Professor Drezner Recommends

Read this.  There's some of the usual blah-blah-blah about not going out of your way to be insulting to the easily insulted because blah-blah-blah, but this I do think is quotable:

... the people who killed people; protesters, thugs, militants, whomever, are ultimately responsible for their actions. If the U.S. government is going to discourage our own idiots from provoking people, then the governments of Egypt and Libya should act to corral those within their own nations who would storm an embassy on the pretext that a film offends. Well, barely, a film. A piece of anti-Muslim bigotry that was made to make the filmmakers feel good and others feel bad. If, as an American, I feel embarrassed that so many of my fellow Americans are bigots, I would, as an Egypt or a Libyan, be even more horrified that the majority in my country seemed unable to stop (and barely condemn) the even more deplorable violent religious extremism of a minority.  

Hey, I do take exception to the idea that "so many of my fellow Americans are bigots."  It's just that the bigots, haters, and fringe-dwelling wingnuts make a lot more attention-grabbing noise than all the non-bigots who are just trying to live our lives.  Frankly, I don't think I like the idea of the US government discouraging idiots from provoking people, because ... Well. But the point about the free will, conscious decision-making, and moral agency of the mob is accurate.

Foreign Policy Fiascos: A Summary

*Sigh.*

2011 In News Photographs

Here is a collection of striking images.  Be warned, though: a few are gruesome.

A Look Back: 45 Memorable Images of 2011

A picture says a thousand words.

Egypt and Extremism

Two disturbing thoughts here and here.

Meditating on the Middle East: An Open Letter to the Foreign Policy Establishment

What do you think?

After the Fall of the Pharaoh: Thoughts on Post-Mubarak Egypt

The always-interesting Michael J. Totten offers some thoughts.

Nerd Analysis: Fouad Ajami on the Weak Horse

Read this.  The weak horse and, literally and metaphorically, yesterday's news?  UPDATE:  Read this too.

Nerd Analysis: Professor Lewis on the Doomed Tyrannies of the Middle East

The undisputed master of Middle Eastern studies, Professor Bernard Lewis of Princeton, takes another look at the ongoing instability in the Middle East.

Nerd Analysis: Prof. Ferguson on Un-American Revolutions

Professor Niall Ferguson (whom I most recently linked here for his critique of US foreign policy on Egypt) now has a few gloomy thoughts about political revolutions.  

This sounds familiar, and not because of Ferguson.  Haven't I babbled on before about how most modern revolutions end in chaos and tyranny with the notable exception of the American Revolution?  (OK, and also sort of England's Glorious Revolution of 1688.)  Just look at what happened after the French Revolution ... or the overthrow of the Romanovs in Russia ... or the upheavals in China since the end of the Qing Dynasty.  Ferguson is gloomy, but that doesn't mean his point isn't valid.

Nerd Analysis: Prof. Bernard Lewis on the Arab Uprisings

"A mass expression of outrage against injustice."  Read the whole thing.  Professor Lewis had earlier thoughts on Egypt here.

HopeChange Chronicles: "Both Cynical and Naive": Responding to the Arab Uprisings

Here is a bit of the lambasting:

The Obama administration also behaves as if the weight of the United States in world affairs is approximately the same as that of Switzerland. We await developments. We urge caution, even restraint. We hope for the formation of an international consensus. And, just as there is something despicable about the way in which Swiss bankers change horses, so there is something contemptible about the way in which Washington has been affecting—and perhaps helping to bring about—American impotence. Except that, whereas at least the Swiss have the excuse of cynicism, American policy manages to be both cynical and naive.

Well, OK, but one thing that seems clear enough is that the Middle Eastern tumults are by, for, and about local conditions and local people.  They're about locals in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, Bahrain, etc. being unhappy with their leaders. They're not about Israel (contrary to decades of wonky foreign policy belief) , and they're not about the US and the West either, not really.  On the other hand, perhaps Hitchens is being a little unfair in criticizing the administration's foreign policy when it seems to me that the problem is that it's flailing around because IT DOESN'T REALLY HAVE ONE. (Oh, snap!)