Taiwan: On China's Will and Ability to Invade

Professor Jonathan Pollack, an Asian studies expert at the US Naval War College, recently wrote an analysis in which he states this:

"As long as you have a Government in Taipei that is going to work hard to not provoke the Chinese, I would see the probability (of China using military force against Taiwan) diminishing, not increasing, even as China becomes much more capable militarily."

Really? With all due respect to the professor and his expert opinion, I think he's dead wrong. Dignified Rant thinks he's wrong too, so that makes me feel better. Here's a bit of Brian's analysis:

I say that increasing Chinese ability to invade Taiwan increases the probability of invasion.

And just what the heck does not provoking the Chinese mean when your very existence "provokes" the Chinese? Any so-called accommodation means absorption of Taiwan by China, as far as Peking is concerned. Kiss that democracy that Taiwan has built good bye.

Remember, Taiwanese realists know that successfully dealing with China means having a military capable of holding them off. Anything less is just hoping for the best.

By all means, hope for the best and work for it too, but do it while sitting on a meaningful array of hardware that will make any Chinese invasion painful for the Chinese. This blog has been long calling for bolstering Taiwan's military defensive capabilities. See also this related analysis from the Weekly Standard. Frankly, you would be a fool of epic proportions to pin your hopes on Beijing's "goodwill."