I know I've said it before: strategic ambiguity and general "fuzziness" in American policy toward Taiwan leads to more, not less, risk of conflict in the Taiwan Strait among the major players of China, Taiwan, and the US. (Also, recall this archived nerd-expert lecture on the topic.)
Dignified Rant calls for strategic clarity and also links to a piece arguing that defending Taiwan is in a real sense also defending America.
Things have changed in both China and Taiwan since the formulation of the "One China policy" (the name itself is a pernicious fiction), and current policy should reflect those changes, not cling to an outdated and obsolete scenario. Just look at Beijing ramping up its military spending and planting missiles like geraniums on the coast.
The short version: Beijing should have no doubts about American commitment to Taiwanese security. And Taiwan should have no doubts about its own needs for robust self-defense capabilities. (I.e., Don't want to get invaded? Make yourself -- DUH -- hard/painful to invade.)
OK, I've gotten invested in this now (my morning coffee just kicked in), so . . . This goes without saying, surely, but I'm going to say it anyway. Over the last twenty years or so, Taiwan has developed into one of Asia's democratic bright spots. If the US has a real commitment to the idea of freedom around the world (and this isn't a crazy neocon thing; remember the words of Dem saint JFK too), it should take a long hard look at its Taiwan policy. Look, we are spending a great deal of blood and treasure to grow democracy in the Middle East; now here's a much more established democracy in Asia that could use some straight-talking support (not the same type of blood or treasure), and what are we doing? I'll even go out on a limb and say that a little backbone now will save a whole lot of trouble later. Strategic ambiguity ultimately encourages Beijing to push, push, push to see just what it can get away with while Washington shuffles around and looks like it's second-guessing and hesitating. Because, well, it sort of is.
Meanwhile, Ma is making a mess of things on the island and very possibly doing real harm to the integrity of its democracy, but that's really another post. Suffice it to say for now that all my democracy-advocating relatives are extremely concerned.
5 comments:
Let me go out on a limb here and say I support the One China Policy, and as soon as those goons in Beijing clear out and give the country back to its rightful leaders in Taipei, I'll support unification.
Also, I support strategic ambiguity. That's why I think Taiwan should have its own ballistic missile subs. After all, a little ambiguity about where Taiwan's nuclear arsenal is could go a long way toward deterring aggression by said goons in Beijing.
But that's just me, of course.
I think you and I are using two different meanings to "strategic ambiguity." I'm all for folks guessing a bit about Taiwan's arsenal (as long as it's along the lines of what painful hardware DO they have -- in a deterrent sense). You know I'm all for Taiwan arming up.
When I say I don't think "strategic ambiguity" is good, I mean the US side. If Beijing thinks it can get away with something and not face any real consequences, I'll bet you my dim sum lunch that it will. The weaving around by the US only encourages Beijing to think that if push comes to shove over Taiwan, Uncle Sam won't DO anything substantive. Political handwringing and speeches do nothing, as we've seen with Tibet, Darfur, etc.
And I'll support One China if *both* sides of the Strait are free democracies.
Yeah, I was being facetious. I completely agree with you, though even if both sides are democracies, I don't see why Taiwan should give up its independence unless the people really want to join China.
Sorry the humor didn't come through. But, um, could I have that dumpling there you seem to be ignoring?
Oops, sorry! I've just gotten used to people not having a sense of humor when it comes to foreign policy.
The unification thing can be a source of some dark humor. Can you imagine a sensible Taiwanese actually thinking: "Hm, gee, Beijing insults and marginalizes us at every turn whenever we try to do anything on our own... Beijing jails its dissidents and persecutes house churches and Falun Dafa...doesn't believe in basic civil liberties...Let's join 'em!"
And yes, please, do have some nice xiao long bao before the Cine-Sib eats them all. *pushes plate across table* And you ought to find yourself a nice dim sum restaurant if there's a decent Chinatown within driving distance. Dim sum dumplings rule!
Xie xie! (nom-nom-nom-nom :-D )
I actually have a good Chinatown within walking distance at the moment. Dim sum dumplings absolutely rule!
Mmm, well, my sense of humor tends to be pretty dry, best served chilled, I hear.
And no, I can't imagine the Taiwanese, or anyone really, wanting to join China. I don't think even all the Chinese want to be part of China.
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