Nerd Analysis: Obama's Middle East Strategy Meets Harsh Reality

The score so far is Reality 1, Obama 0.

The nerds at Harvard take a look at the president's Middle East strategy and have some piquant things to say. Here's a piece of it:

The President’s advisers promised him that taking a principled stand on settlements would generate goodwill in the Arab world. There is no doubt that the Cairo speech struck a chord with many Arabs. But goodwill of that sort is not a strategic commodity. Even a popular honest broker cannot reshape the iron interests of the parties on the ground, none of whom see much benefit in taking risks to achieve a goal that they do not really believe in. Many Western diplomats tell themselves that peace is nearly at hand, but the parties on the ground—Arab and Jewish alike—are highly skeptical. And for good reason. The power of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Syria, supported by Iran, looms in the background. It is highly unlikely that, in the next four years, a major breakthrough will take place. In order to maintain good relations with Washington, the leaders in the region will certainly play along with the Obama administration. But the name of their game is not “Peacemaking” but, rather, “Shift the Blame.” Its object is to take positions that paint one’s rivals as the real obstructionists in the eyes of Washington.

Well, DUH. I add that the Cairo speech itself contained far too many instances of Obama playing fast and loose and disingenuously with HISTORY.

The analysis notes also that while Obama's got some (vague) plan for his action that is meant to trigger certain responses by Israel and the Arab states, "neither the Israelis nor the Arabs, however, have reacted according to his script." Precisely. Because it's not his happy shiny pie-eyed made-for-the-cameras script that they're interested in. Because the script doesn't account for the complexities and pathologies of reality on the ground.

And so we find yet another instance of people who refuse to see (much less understand) reality, who think they can have have what they want because they want it -- despite reality.

I should point out too, as the Harvard eggheads do, that amid all this, the Obama response toward THE major issue in the region for Israelis and Arabs alike (Iran's nuclear ambitions) has been utterly lacking in any true substance.