Blog friend Dignified Rant has two new posts about China, Taiwan, and military concerns.
Do take a look at his thoughts on the chances of a Chinese first strike and on Taiwan's and America's will to fight (or, terrifyingly, the lack of it). I personally am mostly convinced that China will make a grab for Taiwan if Beijing thinks they can (a) be lightning-fast about it, and (b) get away with it in a practical sense.
By "lightning-fast," I mean overwhelm Taiwan's defensive capabilities in the Strait and then seize the island and have it as a fait accompli before any meaningful military assistance can arrive (mainly US, I dare say). By practical, I mean mostly bloodless. Beijing doesn't care about UN resolutions and international scolding.
PS -- Thanks, Brian, for saving me the work of writing up my own posts! School business is CRAZY right now.
UPDATE: More here.